Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Seeing Through the Panic to Profits …
Article written by Larry Edelson Money And Markets 10-30-08
First, some important news no one else is telling you: The Dow is now trading at the equivalent of the 2,500 level, down a whopping 77% from its high.
Yes, you read that right. In terms of “honest” money — gold — the Dow Jones Industrials has already lost 77% of its value! Now, how could that be, you ask.
Simple: It’s because the world no longer uses “honest” money and instead economies — and asset prices — float on variable currency exchange rates with nothing but “a promise to pay” backing them. So to really understand what’s happening to values — the nominal prices that you see in the markets whether they be for stocks, bonds or commodities — you must look at them in terms of the one asset that always holds its purchasing power: Gold. For instance …
In 1999, when the Dow hit its real inflation-adjusted peak of 11,210, it bought 44 ounces of real money, gold. Today, the Dow buys less than 10 ounces of gold.
That means the Dow now buys 34 ounces less gold, a purchasing power loss of 77%. That essentially means the Dow is already trading at the equivalent of 2,578. Now, you might argue, as others do, that it’s mostly because the price of gold has soared so much over the last eight years.
But that argument actually reinforces my point: Your money, even after the recent rally in the value of the greenback, is worth a whole lot less than it was a year ago, two years ago, five years ago, eight years ago, even ten years ago. And so on. This is a hard concept to understand at times, but it’s so important that you do. Why? Because only then will you know how to position your portfolio to profit in the months and
years ahead.
Savvy investors like Warren Buffet, Jimmy Rogers, Mark Mobius, and Barton Biggs understand it.
Indeed, just a few days ago, Warren Buffet wrote the following in The New York Times … “Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.
Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.”
He’s right.
Of course, Buffet has the capital and staying power to jump into the markets now and buy, whereas many investors don’t.
So for most of you, I think holding cash and gold right now are the best and safest investments for almost all your capital. Even so, that shouldn’t change your view or understanding of the world and what’s happening. And it certainly should not prevent you from preparing for some of the greatest buying opportunities of a lifetime in all types of assets.
To see how assets inflate over time, ask yourself the following questions … If you could go back to the depths of 1932 and buy stocks or commodities, would you? You bet you would. If you could roll back time to the severe 1973 — 1975 recession and buy stocks or gold, would you? You bet you would, especially gold, which soared from the $130 level to $850 by January 1980.
If you could buy stocks after the 1987 stock market crash, would you?
You bet you would!
If you could turn back the clock and buy stocks or commodities during the 1990 S&L crisis, would you?
You bet you would!
If you could go back to the Long-Term Capital Management and Asian currency crises of 1997 and 1998 and buy assets, even real estate, would you? You bet you would! If you could go back to the year 2000, or even 2001 post-9/11, and buy gold, other commodities, even real estate, would you? You bet you would!
The ONLY difference between the current crisis and past crises is, yes, that this one is larger and more severe in scope. But that doesn’t mean it will be resolved differently. Quite to the contrary, it will be
resolved the same way all past financial crises have been resolved, through inflating away
debt. Because no matter how you slice it, the historical record shows that without gold backing currencies, inflation is baked into the cake via monetary policy. Another market that’s quickly becoming a huge bargain: China
In fact, I see five major reasons why China continues to offer excellent long-term
potential … Reason #1: Contrary to popular opinion, China’s exports continue to grow! The talking heads in the media want you to believe that China’s exports are getting hammered. But that’s simply not true.
While exports to the U.S. are down 10% this year, all told China’s exports through September are up an astounding 21.5% over the same period last year. Where are all the exports going, if exports to the U.S. are declining? They’re going to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and more. In other words, China’s exports within Asia and Southeast Asia are up, big time. That’s a testament to rising consumption within Asia as much as it is to China from a purely export point of view.
And speaking of consumption … Reason #2: Retail sales are exploding higher. Retail sales over the Chinese New Year holiday jumped 16% over 2007 even while bad weather crippled the nation’s transport infrastructure during the holiday period. More recently, during its week-long national holiday between September 29 and October 5, China’s retail sales surged 21% year-on-year. That’s not all. In September alone retail sales soared 23% over last year — that’s close to the fastest pace in at least nine years!
What’s more, January through August retail sales volume in China rose 14.3% versus 12.9% for all of 2007, while the value of the retail sales rose to a 12-year high. And in the months ahead, retail sales and domestic consumption appear set to rise even more as Beijing cuts interest rates … slashes taxes … and lowers the downpayment requirement for first-time homebuyers from 30% to 20%. Also announced on October 22, a reduction in the property deed tax to 1% from 3%-5% for first-home buyers and for those who purchase properties smaller than 90 square meters … plus, a whopping 30% discount on mortgage interest rates!
That is sure to help propel retail sales growth in the months ahead.
Reason #3: Government Spending. Having nearly $2 trillion in its piggy-bank is a nice way to weather this global financial storm. It’s why growth in urban fixed-asset investment in China is 27.6% higher in the first nine months of this year from a year earlier. And it’s why up to $400 billion in new investment has been earmarked for rural China with a growth objective of doubling rural incomes of 750 million Chinese within the next three years.
Reason #4: Monetary policy is being relaxed. Inflation has cooled a bit in China, so monetary authorities are loosening up their grip, cutting interest rates and bank reserve requirements for the first time since 2002. And more cuts are in the offing. Reason #5: China’s stock market is trading at dirt-cheap price-to-earnings
ratios.
China’s market has been hammered hard and it’s now trading at almost unheard of levels, with P/E valuation multiples as low as 5 to 1. Cheap? You bet they are. Can they get cheaper? In this panic environment, of course they can.
So what does all this mean and what should you do? You have to see through the panic to the profits. Once-in-a-lifetime bargains are going to be popping up all over the world.
Stay tuned for my signals!
Best,
Larry
P.S. To position yourself for the once-in-a-lifetime profit opportunities I see coming,
subscribe to Real Wealth Report. For just $99 a year, get 12 monthly issues, all my
analysis and recommendations, flash alerts and more! It will be the best $99 you’ve ever
spent!
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/seeing-through-the-panic-to-profits-27815
Friday, October 24, 2008
Dividend Superstars Crushing Other Income Investments
A few months ago, right here in Money and Markets, I said utility stocks that boast steadily rising dividend payments are better income investments than bonds. And as the credit crisis unfolds, I believe that more than ever. In fact, I’d now go so far as to say that utility stocks — and other solid dividend payers — are better than most CDs and money market funds, too.
Sure, stocks carry plenty of risk. But that risk is known. What’s more, as I showed you last week, it’s easily counteracted with inverse ETFs. On the other hand, many so-called “safe” investments come with all kinds of hidden risks. Let’s start with one of the most blatant examples — the fact that America’s oldest money market fund recently told its investors,
“NO WITHDRAWALS.” That was the first time in history that a large money market fund was forced to freeze out its customers from their deposits. And what were investors getting for that unadvertised risk? An average annual return of 2.8%.
That’s not even enough to keep pace with rising costs for gasoline, health-care, food, and other daily necessities! Moreover, in a money market fund, your principal never grows. If you’re lucky, you will end up with exactly what you started with — that’s the best result you can hope for. And because of inflation, what you started with will buy you a lot less than it does today. You have the exact same problem with CDs and bonds. You take on risk, get low yields, and the value of the principal will get eaten away by inflation. Yes, I DO still suggest you keep a large chunk of your cash parked in Treasury-only money funds for liquidity, safety, and future investments. But when it comes to your income investments, money funds, bonds, and CDs give you zero growth in your nest egg … they add nothing to your retirement fund … your child’s college fund … or your “just let me enjoy life” fund. They’re a dead end precisely when you need an open highway.
In contrast …America’s Top Dividend Superstars Have Been Writing Rich, Steady Dividend Checks for Decades! A handful of companies have been paying out big, fat dividends through past crises, recessions, and two World Wars! And in today’s market, they can immediately double or triple the investment income you’d get from CDs, bonds, or money markets.
I’m talking about prosperous, conservative companies with solid dividend yields well
above 5%. Take Integrys Energy, for example, the old Peoples Gas & Light, which serves Chicago. It’s sending out big, fat dividend checks that add up to 5.3% annually.
To put that in perspective, that’s just about double what you’d get with a money market fund, CD or bond. And while bonds default, bank CDs fail, and now money market funds are starting to freeze up, Integrys has paid investors dividends for 68 consecutive years. It’s never missed a single payment.
In fact, it has increased its dividend checks in each of the last 50 years. That’s extraordinary! And it means Integrys investors are getting bigger and bigger dividend checks every single year.
Those small, steady dividend increases compound with amazing power. Someone who bought Integrys just ten years ago is now earning an effective dividend yield of 14.3%, about four times what you can get on a CD or Treasury bond today. That’s the power of investing in companies that steadily raise their dividends. So while millions of investors are worrying about their “minimum wage” investment income from CDs, money funds, and Treasury bonds — you could double that immediately and then go on to do three, four, even five times better by investing in companies like Integrys with steadily-rising dividends. Plus, Reinvest Those Dividends And You Can Boost Your Income Even More … If you don’t need the income now, you can continually compound your gains — which multiplies your dividend payments.
Let’s say that you put $10,000 into the dividend reinvestment program of Integrys and the stock price remains constant. Since it’s paying 5.3%, you’ll have $10,530 after one year. Next year, you’ll be earning 5.3% on the $10,530, not just the original $10,000. It might not seem like a big deal at first, but the effects over time can really add up. Five years later, you’ll have $12,946.19 worth of stock, 29% more than you started with. Ten years later, you’ll have $16,760.38 — more than a 67% increase of your initial investment.
And if you started with a $100,000 portfolio, that will have grown to $167,600. Plus dividend checks that come to more than $8,800 a year! So you can see that this compounding effect packs a real wallop. And this isn’t mere theory. Indeed, one reader recently wrote in and told me,
“I never traded stocks; I bought utilities that had a dividend reinvestment plan; did that for 32 years. I retired with $2 Million! My dividend income is $100k+ annually. I started my plan at age 28 and retired at age 60. I have a good wife, a school teacher who also contributed to our plan. Market crashes never bothered us. Compounding dividends every 12 weeks is a working man’s way to financial security.”
I couldn’t give you a better example than that! In fact, that simple paragraph holds the single best piece of investment wisdom you will ever hear. And in this tricky environment, it’s truer than ever!
Best wishes,
Nilus
Post written by: Nilus Mattive
(Original Post)
P.S The reason that I interview Paul Damazo in my previous post is because he just wrote a book about the 80 ways he has become a millionaire!
Paul has generated a 15% average return for the last FIFTY YEARS with his dividend paying stocks!
List to the call replay below!
Steven Barchetti
Sure, stocks carry plenty of risk. But that risk is known. What’s more, as I showed you last week, it’s easily counteracted with inverse ETFs. On the other hand, many so-called “safe” investments come with all kinds of hidden risks. Let’s start with one of the most blatant examples — the fact that America’s oldest money market fund recently told its investors,
“NO WITHDRAWALS.” That was the first time in history that a large money market fund was forced to freeze out its customers from their deposits. And what were investors getting for that unadvertised risk? An average annual return of 2.8%.
That’s not even enough to keep pace with rising costs for gasoline, health-care, food, and other daily necessities! Moreover, in a money market fund, your principal never grows. If you’re lucky, you will end up with exactly what you started with — that’s the best result you can hope for. And because of inflation, what you started with will buy you a lot less than it does today. You have the exact same problem with CDs and bonds. You take on risk, get low yields, and the value of the principal will get eaten away by inflation. Yes, I DO still suggest you keep a large chunk of your cash parked in Treasury-only money funds for liquidity, safety, and future investments. But when it comes to your income investments, money funds, bonds, and CDs give you zero growth in your nest egg … they add nothing to your retirement fund … your child’s college fund … or your “just let me enjoy life” fund. They’re a dead end precisely when you need an open highway.
In contrast …America’s Top Dividend Superstars Have Been Writing Rich, Steady Dividend Checks for Decades! A handful of companies have been paying out big, fat dividends through past crises, recessions, and two World Wars! And in today’s market, they can immediately double or triple the investment income you’d get from CDs, bonds, or money markets.
I’m talking about prosperous, conservative companies with solid dividend yields well
above 5%. Take Integrys Energy, for example, the old Peoples Gas & Light, which serves Chicago. It’s sending out big, fat dividend checks that add up to 5.3% annually.
To put that in perspective, that’s just about double what you’d get with a money market fund, CD or bond. And while bonds default, bank CDs fail, and now money market funds are starting to freeze up, Integrys has paid investors dividends for 68 consecutive years. It’s never missed a single payment.
In fact, it has increased its dividend checks in each of the last 50 years. That’s extraordinary! And it means Integrys investors are getting bigger and bigger dividend checks every single year.
Those small, steady dividend increases compound with amazing power. Someone who bought Integrys just ten years ago is now earning an effective dividend yield of 14.3%, about four times what you can get on a CD or Treasury bond today. That’s the power of investing in companies that steadily raise their dividends. So while millions of investors are worrying about their “minimum wage” investment income from CDs, money funds, and Treasury bonds — you could double that immediately and then go on to do three, four, even five times better by investing in companies like Integrys with steadily-rising dividends. Plus, Reinvest Those Dividends And You Can Boost Your Income Even More … If you don’t need the income now, you can continually compound your gains — which multiplies your dividend payments.
Let’s say that you put $10,000 into the dividend reinvestment program of Integrys and the stock price remains constant. Since it’s paying 5.3%, you’ll have $10,530 after one year. Next year, you’ll be earning 5.3% on the $10,530, not just the original $10,000. It might not seem like a big deal at first, but the effects over time can really add up. Five years later, you’ll have $12,946.19 worth of stock, 29% more than you started with. Ten years later, you’ll have $16,760.38 — more than a 67% increase of your initial investment.
And if you started with a $100,000 portfolio, that will have grown to $167,600. Plus dividend checks that come to more than $8,800 a year! So you can see that this compounding effect packs a real wallop. And this isn’t mere theory. Indeed, one reader recently wrote in and told me,
“I never traded stocks; I bought utilities that had a dividend reinvestment plan; did that for 32 years. I retired with $2 Million! My dividend income is $100k+ annually. I started my plan at age 28 and retired at age 60. I have a good wife, a school teacher who also contributed to our plan. Market crashes never bothered us. Compounding dividends every 12 weeks is a working man’s way to financial security.”
I couldn’t give you a better example than that! In fact, that simple paragraph holds the single best piece of investment wisdom you will ever hear. And in this tricky environment, it’s truer than ever!
Best wishes,
Nilus
Post written by: Nilus Mattive
(Original Post)
P.S The reason that I interview Paul Damazo in my previous post is because he just wrote a book about the 80 ways he has become a millionaire!
Paul has generated a 15% average return for the last FIFTY YEARS with his dividend paying stocks!
List to the call replay below!
Steven Barchetti
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